Quote:
Originally Posted by 84gunner
ya, can feel a downturn approaching soon. A downturn was previously estimated to be in 2008, but when I was in China in 04 & 05, I estimate it to be getting closer, probably later part of 07.
Market is getting more & more overbought.
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Agreed as most of the "hot" properties & quick escalation in business activities has 2 do w/ the coming Olympics. E.g. Hevy development in infrastruture in preparation 4 the event bought many business 2 the construction & properties sectors. Tourism oso profited as ppl rush 2 c many old buildings & structures b4 they R all gone & anticpation of the "flood" of audience 4 the event. As the pockets of these sectors' elites gt filled, it start 2 diffuse 2 other business as well, which led 2 ovrspeculation of the entire economy. (Much lik wha Ford 'T' model & "dotcom" @ the turn of tis century)
Though actual slip shld fall oni after the event, we hav witness many times in the stock market tat wha move market is "feel" & nt economics. Market fall & rise in anticipation of actual event & nt wha is actually happening. Tis is especially so when the market has rise seriously abv value which is sustain by punters' "feels". So, if market heads 4 a small dwnfall & ppl start throwing the towel, its will be disasterous, unless chinese govt. steps in (which they might as they hav the means).
Hwevr, those bros who already holding stocks, need nt freak out & start selling yr stocks as no 1 in the whole wrld k tell U exactly when isit going 2 happen though some of us may "
guess rite". As lng as U hav,
i) Research yr stock(s) b4 U invest & understand its instrintic & growth
value
ii) Is nt going 2 retire in the near future or anticpating a need of $$ soon
As china & emerging markets, as well as developed ecnomies, lik E.U still hav potential 2 develop further which will bring U ~10%/annual (after tax & inflation) growth as lng as U R holding stocks of "solid growth" value vs "hot picks of the moment" & stay lng enough in the market 2 "avg." things out.
Its kind of lik those dancing (isit cha cha?), e.g.
Notice, hw sum of all "advances" will always outstrip sum of all "retreats"?
i) 3 steps 4fwd, 1 step bkwrd
i) 3 steps 4fwd, 1 step bkwrd
i) 5 steps 4fwd, 3 step bkwrd
(Note, nt neccessary in tis order, jus 2 illustrate my pts)
P.S
I actually predict it during Jun last yr but it happened a mth earlier & it was more of a major correction than a bear which I wld attribute it 2 the "dotcom" which disrupt the "10-yr" cycle. Since, it didn't drop as much as I anticpated after nearly a mth, I expected it 2 climb bk up 2 3000 pts which it almost did (2900++) b4 (I tk it will) heavily correct in 1~2 yrs time (but I tk wun be 2 disasterous as a result).