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Champions League permutations
December 4, 2011
GROUP A
Bayern Munich hv already qualified as group winners. The battle 4 2nd place is betw Napoli & ManC, with the Italian side a point better off & they also hv the head-2-head with City in their favour.
City hv 2 beat Bayern Munich @ Eastlands & hope Napoli fail 2 win away 2 Villarreal, who hv lost all 5 matches. Any other results will send Napoli thru in 2nd & condemn City 2 the Europa League.
GROUP B
Inter Milan will go thru 2 the 1st knockout round as group winners. But with Trabzonspor, Lille & CSKA Moscow separated by just a single point, it promises 2 be a tense final day.
4 unfancied Trabzonspor, the task is simple: if they win in Lille they will be thru. A draw in France & they would be relying on CSKA failing 2 win in the San Siro 2 keep 2nd place. As CSKA go 2 Inter, Trabzonspor may feel a draw will be enough. A draw 4 Trabzonspor guarantees Europa League football @ worst. If they lose 2 Lille, CSKA can take the Europa League place, on head-2-head, with a draw in Italy.
Lille's requirements r just as straightforward: they must win @ home 2 Trabzonspor or face elimination. And if they win they r guaranteed 2 finish 2nd due 2 their head-2-head record with CSKA. If CSKA better Lille's result then the French side will be eliminated completely.
CSKA hv things out of their hands somewhat with Lille & Trabzonspor facing off. The only way the Russian side can qualify is if they win @ Inter & the other match ends in a draw. They will definitely be in the Europa League with a draw coupled with a positive result in Lille.
GROUP C
Benfica hv qualified, level on points with ManU on 9 points with FC Basel on 8. As United & Basel play each other Benfica cannot finish outside the top 2.
Benfica r firm favourites 2 win the group, being @ home 2 Otelul Galati, who hv lost every match, on MatchDay 6. Victory guarantees top spot & they will also finish 1st with a draw if the other match also finishes level. If Benfica lose they will definitely finish 2nd.
ManU travel 2 Switzerland knowing they need a point 2 go thru, & can top the group by bettering Benfica's result. FC Basel can only qualify with a win; any other result means Europa League football.
GROUP D
Real Madrid hv secured top spot, while Ajax hv a 3-point cushion over Lyon. As both matches betw these 2 sides finished goalless, the head-2-head record is level, so only overall goal difference will matter. Lyon need a 7-goal swing @ least 2 overhaul Ajax, & with the Dutch side facing Real & Lyon playing Dinamo Zagreb it is possible if improbable.
If the 2 sides finish with identical records, including goals 4 & against, then it goes 2 combined club & country coefficient - on which Lyon hv a considerable lead. Tat could happen if Ajax lose 3-0 & Lyon win 4-0.
Dinamo hv lost every game so r out of the picture.
GROUP E
Bayer Leverkusen r through due 2 Chelsea & Valencia meeting on the final day, but top spot remains up 4 grabs. Leverkusen can secure tis by winning away 2 Genk. If they do not beat Genk then any winner in the other tie would finish 1st with the German side runners-up.
Contrary 2 reports elsewhere, Chelsea r not guaranteed 2 qualify with a 0-0 draw. If Leverkusen lose in Belgium then Chelsea would be eliminated with any draw, including 0-0. Tis is becos when 3 teams r level on points a mini-league is created without the games involving Genk. Leverkusen would finish top having secured 1 more point than their rivals. Valencia will finish abv Chelsea by virtue of having scored 1 more goal than the London club, with both having 5 points & a goal difference of +1.
Chelsea can only finish 2nd with a 0-0 draw if Leverkusen pick up points. A 1-1 draw would put Valencia thru on goal difference & any other draw would put Valencia in the knockout rounds on head-2-head having scored more away goals.
Either Chelsea or Valencia can guarantee qualification with a victory, & will finish top if Leverkusen also fail 2 win. A loser @ Stamford Bridge would enter the Europa League.
GROUP F
Arsenal r certain of topping the group with a 4-point cushion over Marseille, but there r several permutations 4 2nd place & the Europa League berth.
Marseille will guarantee a knockout place with victory away @ Borussia Dortmund. However, if they fail 2 pick up maximum points it could let in Olympiakos, who would move up 2 2nd with a home win over Arsenal.
4 Dortmund, the outlook is bleak. As they lost 3-0 away 2 Marseille & becos of their inferior goal difference, they must win by 4 goals 2 overhaul the Ligue 1 side. A win by a smaller margin would condemn them 2 the Europa League - but only if Olympiakos lose 2 Arsenal.
Tis is another group where 3 teams can finish level on points, which will happen should Olympiakos draw & Dortmund win - & even then all sides would be level on 6 points in the mini-league so it comes down 2 goal difference betw them.
If the 3 teams finish level, there r several potential scenarios. If Dortmund win by 1 goal, Marseille will finish 2nd, Olympiakos 3rd & Dortmund 4th. If Dortmund win by 2 or 3 goals then Olympiakos will be 2nd, Marseille 3rd & Dortmund 4th. If Dortmund win by 4 goals it will be Olympiakos 2nd, Dortmund 3rd & Marseille 4th. Dortmund can only qualify 4 the knockout rounds via the 3-team mini-league if they beat Marseille by 5 goals or more, which would push Olympiakos in2 the Europa League.
GROUP G
Apoel Nicosia will be in the knockout stages as the teams in 2nd & 3rd, Zenit & FC Porto, face each other. Any of the 3 sides can still finish top of the table.
Apoel r @ home 2 Shakhtar Donetsk, who hv nothing 2 play 4, knowing victory will guarantee top spot as will a draw betw Zenit & Porto. Apoel hv the better head-2-head against Zenit so will be top if level on points with the Russian side.
Zenit hv 2 travel 2 FC Porto in search of the draw, which would secure 2nd place. Porto hv 2 win 2 send them thru & put Zenit in the Europa League. Zenit can top the group if they win & Apoel do not. Porto can only top the group if they win & Apoel lose.
GROUP H
Barcelona hv already won the group with AC Milan in 2nd. Viktoria Plzen & BATE Borisov r both in the hunt 4 the Europa League, with Plzen having a 2-point advantage. BATE can only stay in Europe by winning away @ Barcelona coupled with a Plzen defeat @ home 2 Milan.